As a seed-stage investor,
First Round Capital
typically funds powerpoints. Not only are the majority of
our investments pre-revenue, but most of the time we are
investing in pre-launch companies. While these
companies might have an alpha/beta version of their site, it's
usually early enough that we can’t base our investment decision
off of any market traction. Instead, we typically make our
investment decisions based on three key areas:
the size of the market, the strength of the team, and the product
vision. This is often made even more difficult by the
fact that we know that many of the businesses we fund end up with
(one or more) pivots -- since their business
plan is always wrong.
The
Team
I've lately started to realize that our most successful companies
are led by entrepreneurs who have a unique talent -- they are
heat
seeking missiles. It
doesn't matter where the missile is aimed
pre-launch. Successful entrepreneurs are
constantly collecting data -- and constantly looking for bigger
and better targets, adjusting course if
necessary. And when they find their target,
they're able to lock-onto it -- regardless of how crowded the
space becomes. When Nat and
Zach first came to us with the idea for Invite Media, it was focused on
algorithms for ad targeting. But once they got
into the market the team saw a bigger opportunity -- the DSP
space -- and they locked-onto that target with
a successful outcome. We funded VideoEgg back in 2005 with the goal
of creating tools to manage online video -- but Matt and team quickly
adjusted course and have now become a leading media network for
brand advertisers. When we first
met Lance
and Jia in 2006, they had a cool photo-hosting application
called RockMySpace -- but they quickly found
the opportunity was much larger than photo-hosting, and RockYou has since
became a leading provider of social networking and gaming
applications.
Market
Markets really matter. Because the bigger the
market, the more targets there are for the missile to
hit. I've seen many companies fail to reach
their potential because -- despite the skill of the founders --
they ultimately realize that there just aren't enough (or any)
big targets for them to lock-onto. It's really
hard to start a company -- and there are so many risks that all
startups share, regardless of market size.
Whether you're targeting a $10M addressable market or a $1B
addressable market, you're still going to face Hiring Risk,
Marketing Risk, Competitive Risk, Technology Risk,
and Financing Risk. And
while bigger markets might pose more challenges than smaller
markets, the risks involved in targetting a $1B market are not
100x greater than those involved in $10M market.
Choosing the right market is critical, because the market you
choose determines the targets that are available for the
heat-seeking missile to hit.
Product
Sometimes entrepreneurs (like Aaron) will have such a strong
sense of the market that their initial product plan is
dead-on. But most of the time we see the
product iterate and morph over time. As a
result, product is often the hardest thing to evaluate
pre-launch. And some of our biggest
mistakes have occurred when we passed on companies based on their
pre-launch product. So today we tend to focus on a
company's product vision, rather than
on the specific implementation of a
pre-launch product. We've also found that a pre-launch
product plan is a great way for us to get additional input on the
team. Have they studied the
competition? Do they really understand how to
leverage social networks, game mechanics, etc?
Do they have a data-driven philosophy or a gut-driven
philosophy. Why did they make the choices they
made?
At the end of the day, I've really come to believe that you can't
predict success based on where a missile is pointed
pre-launch. Instead you have to assess the quality of the
targeting system (the team) and the density/size of targets (the
market). And hope that the missile you launch finds a true
target -- rather than a decoy...